双语外刊
素材来源:FT
深圳转向发展自动驾驶出租车,传统司机被抛在一旁
Chinese tech hub’s shift into robotaxis leaves drivers by the wayside
在自动化加速、威胁零工经济从业者就业之际,这个中国的科技重镇正扩大无人驾驶车辆的应用。
China’s southern technology hub of Shenzhen is paving the way for the rollout of self-driving vehicles, a move that puts it at the forefront of the march to automation but is set to anger hundreds of thousands of hard-pressed taxi drivers.
中国南部的科技中心深圳正为自动驾驶车辆的落地铺路,此举让深圳走在自动化进程的前列,但势必会激怒数十万本已生计艰难的出租车司机。
The rules, which will allow the government to permit robotaxis from July 1, stand to threaten an army of taxi and ride-hailing drivers in one of China’s biggest cities, many of whom have already been displaced by automation and offshoring from the factories that powered the country’s breakneck economic growth.
根据这些规定,政府将可自7月1日起批准无人驾驶出租车上路,这可能会威胁到中国最大城市之一的大批出租车和网约车司机,其中许多人此前已因自动化和离岸外包而从那些曾支撑中国高速经济增长的工厂岗位上被挤出。
“It’s a capitalist operation, driven by personal gain, aiming to monopolise the industry,” said a Shenzhen taxi driver surnamed Dai who drives for the dominant ride-hailing app Didi, of the robotaxis.
一名在深圳为主导网约车平台滴滴开车、姓Dai的出租车司机谈到无人驾驶出租车时表示:“这是资本逐利的运作,受个人利益驱动,意在垄断整个行业。”
“What will become of” the families who rely on China’s millions of taxi drivers, he added. “It’s incredibly cruel.”
他补充说,那些依靠中国数百万名出租车司机谋生的家庭“将会怎样?这实在是太残忍了。”
Shenzhen was one of the engines of southern China’s manufacturing boom, drawing migrant workers in the 1980s and 1990s to a special economic zone that churned out low-cost goods and earned the region the reputation as the world’s factory floor.
在上世纪八九十年代,深圳是中国南方制造业繁荣的发动机之一,这座经济特区吸引了大批外来务工人员,源源不断生产低成本商品,让这一地区赢得了“世界工厂”的名声。
In the decades that followed, it transitioned to higher-value technology and swelled into a megacity, hosting leading companies including Huawei, Tencent, BYD and DJI and an economy that has now surpassed that of neighbouring Hong Kong.
在此后数十年里,这座城市转向更高附加值的科技产业,迅速膨胀为一座特大城市,聚集了华为、腾讯(Tencent)、比亚迪(BYD)和大疆(DJI)等龙头公司,其经济规模如今已超过邻近的香港。
The taxi sector, meanwhile, has become an increasingly important part of China’s vast gig economy, as growth has slowed and migrant workers have been forced out of traditional manufacturing. China has an estimated 320mn flexible workers, which include ride-hailing and delivery drivers as well as some manufacturing and construction workers.
与此同时,出租车行业已成为中国庞大零工经济中日益重要的一部分。随着经济增速放缓,农民工被迫离开传统制造业。中国目前估计有3.2亿灵活就业人员,包括网约车司机、外卖配送员以及部分制造业和建筑业工人。
But the sector is showing signs of strain. Shenzhen has nearly 400,000 drivers licensed to provide taxi services on 26 platforms, according to the city’s transport authority, which warned last month that the “saturated” ride-hailing market was producing an average of just over 13 fares a day, less than most drivers say earns them a decent wage.
但这个行业正显露出吃紧迹象。深圳市交通运输部门的数据显示,全市在26家平台上获得网约车营运许可的司机接近40万人。该部门上月警告说,如今“饱和”的网约车市场,司机日均接单量刚刚超过13单,低于多数司机所说的维持体面收入所需水平。
The new rules will allow the Shenzhen government to promote the “orderly development” of robotaxi tests, demonstrations and commercial pilots either in select zones or citywide. They follow robotaxi pilot projects in recent years by operators including Pony.ai and Baidu in select areas.
新规将允许深圳市政府在特定区域或全市范围内,推动无人驾驶出租车测试、示范及商业试点的“有序发展”。此前几年,包括小马智行(Pony.ai)和百度(Baidu)在内的运营商已在部分区域开展了无人驾驶出租车试点项目。
But drivers, already facing greater competition on the streets for fewer fares, fear the impact of full robotaxi commercialisation.
但已经在街头为日益减少的客源承受更激烈竞争的司机们,担心全面实现无人驾驶出租车商业化带来的影响。
Taxi driver Cheng Yonggang moved from Chongqing to Shenzhen nearly 30 years ago to work in its factories. He then became a driver, only to face increased competition from ride hailers that pushed down prices.
出租车司机Cheng Yonggang近30年前从重庆搬到深圳,在当地工厂打工。后来他改行开出租,但随着网约车兴起、竞争加剧,车费被不断压低。
Cheng, now 53, said he now worked 12-hour days, earning about Rmb11-Rmb12,000 ($1,620-$1,760) per month to support himself and his elderly mother. “Anyone who drives taxis or ride-hails is worried [about robotaxis]— it’ll steal our business,” he said.
现年53岁的Cheng说,他现在每天工作12个小时,每月收入约为1.1万至1.2万元人民币(1620美元至1760美元),用来养活自己和年迈的母亲。Cheng表示:“凡是开出租车或网约车的,都在担心无人驾驶出租车——它会抢走我们的生意。”
英国《金融时报》记者走访深圳科技区南山时看到,在已开始试运营无人驾驶出租车的路段,无人驾驶出租车的车费高于价格最低的网约车平台,但低于传统出租车。
The robotaxi rollout also reflects looming tensions around an automation drive that policymakers see as a solution to China’s ageing population. The UN projects the country’s workforce will shrink from 1bn last decade to 300mn by 2100.
无人出租车的推广也折射出一场即将显现的紧张局面:决策者把自动化视为应对中国人口老龄化的解决方案。联合国预测,中国劳动力规模将从上一个十年的10亿人缩减至2100年的3亿人。
While some robots are being applied to “dirty, dangerous and difficult” manufacturing jobs that are increasingly unappealing to workers, “there is a very serious risk of all these machines taking up human jobs in a gig service economy”, said Jack Linzhou Xing, a postdoctoral research fellow at Harvard University.
哈佛大学(Harvard University)的博士后研究员邢麟舟表示:“目前一些机器人正被用于‘又脏又危险又艰难’的制造业岗位,而这些岗位对劳动者的吸引力日益下降,但在零工服务经济中,这些机器大规模取代人类工作的风险非常严重。”
Pony.ai said that its robotaxis were “not intended to ‘replace’ human drivers in a sudden or wholesale way” but to “complement existing mobility ecosystems”. It added that robotaxis could work longer hours and offered quieter and smoother rides.
小马智行表示,其无人驾驶出租车“并非旨在以突然或全面的方式‘取代’人类驾驶员”,而是要“补充现有的出行生态系统”。该公司补充说,无人驾驶出租车可以工作更长时间,并提供更安静、更平稳的乘车体验。
While analysts say the rollout will be gradual, drivers have expressed concerns about a future in which they will be competing against robotaxis.
分析人士表示,这一推广将是循序渐进的,但司机们已经对未来要与无人驾驶出租车竞争表示担忧。
Zeng Liqiang, a driver for Didi’s premium, limousine-like service, argued that self-driving vehicles could not match the level of human service and said some customers were not ready to trust robots on the road.
Zeng Liqiang是滴滴专车服务的一名司机,他表示,无人驾驶汽车无法达到人工服务的水准,而且有些顾客还没准备好把安全托付给路上的机器人。
“Some people wouldn’t dare ride one because the technology still isn’t that mature. But in a few years’ time, who knows?” he said.
他说:“有些人不敢坐这种车,因为这项科技还不算成熟。不过再过几年,谁知道会怎么样呢?”
For others, the threat was more pressing.
对另外一些人而言,这种威胁更为迫切。
“It’s either them or us,” said a driver who declined to be named. “Every time I see one, I just want to smash it. They are stealing the food right out of our mouths.”
一名不愿透露姓名的司机表示:“不是他们死,就是我们亡。每次看到他们,我就想把他们砸了。他们是在从我们嘴里抢饭吃。”
双语外刊 | 专题《私人市场》系列之二——私人市场呈指数级增长(标题应为另类基金经理日趋主流)
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