巴菲特(谈自动驾驶汽车一旦普及对保险行业的严重打击):
如果自动驾驶汽车更安全,人们就会乐于采用。更安全就意味着保险成本降低,这会显著减少保险公司的保费收入。因此,即便现在已经研发出了绝对安全的自动驾驶汽车,因为路上目前有2.6亿辆传统汽车,所以还需要时间去逐步替换。目前汽车的平均车龄大约在11年半左右。但如果真有那么一天,路上行驶的汽车中很大一部分都变成了自动驾驶,那将极其严重地打击GEICO的业务。
CNBC 记者与巴菲特(探讨自动驾驶发展超出预期,以及“最后1%”的致命隐患):
提问者: 听起来,你可能认为这种情况会比你几年前预期的更早发生。
巴菲特: 我确实有同感。然而,真正的问题在于“最后的1%”。无论如何,这终究是会发生的。但谁知道呢?就像一年前在圣路易斯发生的那件事一样,如果你正开车行驶在路上,突然有人(黑客)控制了你的车,只要发生一两次这种极端体验,就会让整个行业的发展步伐大大减慢。但它终究还是会到来的。
巴菲特(预测未来十年的自动驾驶普及率,以及庞大资本与人才涌入带来的变数):
如果让我打赌预测未来10年的走向,即路上10%的汽车是否会是自动驾驶,我会押注“达不到”(低于10%)。但我也可能大错特错。因为有大批极其聪明的顶尖人才正在钻研这个领域。大型汽车公司也参与其中……我的意思是,人们正在这项技术上投入数以十亿计的巨额资金,并投入了无数最聪明的大脑。所以它很容易比我想象的来得更快。但无论如何,这对汽车保险公司来说都将是极其不利的。
巴菲特(谈自动驾驶汽车一旦普及对保险行业的严重打击):
Self-driving cars will be adopted if they're safer. If they're safer, there's less in the way of insurance costs. That brings down premium volume significantly. So if a safe, autonomous car had been developed, then there's 260 million vehicles on the road, so it takes the time to break in. The average age is about 11 and a half years or something. But if the day comes when a significant portion of the cars on the road are autonomous, it will hurt GEICO's business very significantly.
CNBC 记者与巴菲特(探讨自动驾驶发展超出预期,以及“最后1%”的致命隐患):
Interviewer: It sounds like you potentially see something like this happening sooner maybe than you had anticipated a few years ago.
Buffett: That's the case with me. It's the last one percent, though, that's a problem. It's going to happen one way or another. But, who knows? You had that situation in St. Louis a year ago, and if you were driving down the road and somebody took control of your car, only one or two experiences like that can slow it down a lot. But it'll come.
巴菲特(预测未来十年的自动驾驶普及率,以及庞大资本与人才涌入带来的变数):
If I had to take the over and under 10 years from now on, whether 10% of the cars on the road would be self-driving, I would take the under. But I could very easily be wrong. You've got very, very, very smart people. A lot of them. Working on it. You've got the big auto... I mean, it's something that billions and billions and billions of dollars are being spent on and brains are being involved in it. So it could easily come sooner than I think. But it will be negative for auto insurers.