经济学人 | 外刊听读训练 | 自动驾驶出租车拉开序幕

In 1995 researchers from Carnegie Mellon University drove 3,000 miles from Pittsburgh to San Diego without their hands on the steering wheel. The “No Hands Across America” tour marked the start of a long road trip towards autonomous driving in America. Thirty years later you can, at last, see the fruits of that journey in the proliferation of self-driving cabs in several cities across America. Soon they will be braving the less predictable weather—and the left side of the roads—in London and Tokyo.

重点词汇：

autonomous  /ɔː'tɒnəməs/  adj. 自治的，自动的

proliferation  /prəˌlɪfə'reɪʃn/  n.激增，剧增

self-driving  /ˌself 'draɪv/  adj.自动驾驶的

predictable  /prɪ'dɪktəbl/  adj.可预料的，可预见的

1995年，Carnegie Mellon大学的研究人员从Pittsburgh驱车3000英里前往San Diego，全程未将手放在方向盘上。这场“横跨美国，放手驾驶”之旅，标志着美国自动驾驶漫长征程的起点。三十年后，你终于能在美国多个城市看到自动驾驶出租车的普及，这正是那段旅程结出的果实。很快，它们将挑战伦敦和东京更难以预测的天气——以及靠左行驶的交通规则。

The number of American cities on the robotaxi roadmap is rising fast. Alphabet-owned Waymo, which has the world’s biggest fleet of 2,500 autonomous cars, provides paid rides in five places—Atlanta, Austin, Los Angeles, Phoenix and the San Francisco Bay Area—and plans to more than double that number next year. Elon Musk’s Tesla has expanded its rudimentary robotaxi service (which still has a human safety monitor in the car) from Austin to San Francisco. Zoox, an Amazon-owned company that has built a quirky-looking cab without a steering wheel or pedals, offers autonomous ride-hailing in Las Vegas and has just launched in parts of San Francisco. Like Doctor Dolittle’s pushmi-pullyu, it can go in both directions.

重点词汇：

Alphabet  /'ælfəbet/  n.字母表

expand  /ɪk'spænd/  v.扩张，展开

rudimentary  /ˌruːdɪ'mentri/  adj. 基本的, 初步的

quirky  /'kwɜːki/  adj. 诡诈的,离奇的

pedal  /'pedl/  n. 踏板；脚蹬子

launch  /lɔːntʃ/  v.发动，发起

direction  /də'rekʃn/  n. 方向, 趋向

自动驾驶出租车路线图上的美国城市数量正在迅速增加。alphabet旗下的Waymo拥有世界上最大的2500辆自动驾驶汽车，在Atlanta, Austin, Los Angeles, Phoenix和San Francisco湾区这五个地方提供付费服务，并计划明年将这一数字增加一倍以上。Elon Musk的Tesla已将其基本的自动驾驶出租车服务（车内仍有人类安全监视器）从奥斯汀扩展到旧金山。亚马逊（amazon）旗下的Zoox公司制造了一款外形怪异的出租车，没有方向盘和踏板。该公司在Las Vegas提供自动叫车服务，并刚刚在旧金山的部分地区推出。就像杜立德医生的pushmi-pullyu一样，它可以是双向的。

Many people still have concerns about the technology. In a recent YouGov survey, three-quarters of Americans said they had little or no trust in self-driving taxis. Yet their misgivings may be at least in part the result of unfamiliarity. Another poll by J.D. Power, a consumer-research firm, found that confidence was 56 percentage points higher among those who had ridden in a robotaxi than those who had not. What is more, the number of people who have given one a try is growing speedily. In April Waymo surpassed 1m monthly active users (maus), according to Sensor Tower, a data provider, more than a ten-fold increase in two years .

重点词汇：

misgiving  /ˌmɪs'ɡɪvɪŋ/  n. 疑虑, 担心

familiarity  /fəˌmɪli'ærəti/  n. 熟悉，精通

confidence  /'kɒnfɪdəns/  n. 信任

percentage  /pə'sentɪdʒ/  n. 百分比, 百分率

speedily  /'spiːdəli/  adv. 赶紧；迅速地

surpass  /sə'pɑːs/  v.胜过，优于

许多人仍然对这项技术心存疑虑。在最近的一项YouGov调查中，四分之三的美国人表示他们对自动驾驶出租车几乎或完全没有信任。然而，他们的担忧至少部分源于不熟悉。消费者研究公司J.D. Power的另一项调查发现，乘坐过机器人出租车的人对其信心度比未乘坐过的人高出56个百分点。更重要的是，接受尝试的人正在迅速增加。根据数据提供商Sensor Tower的数据，Waymo在4月份的月活跃用户数（MAU）超过100万，两年间增长了十倍以上。

Waymo and its competitors are not the only companies lured in by the promise of the technology. Others looking to cash in include traditional ride-hailers such as Uber, carmakers such as Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen, and technology suppliers such as Nvidia—not to mention the vibrant robotaxi ecosystem emerging in China.

重点词汇：

competitor  /kəm'petɪtə(r)/  n. 竞争者,对手,敌手

supplier  /sə'plaɪə(r)/  n. 供应者；供应厂商

vibrant  /'vaɪbrənt/  adj. 振动的；颤动的

ecosystem  /'iːkəʊsɪstəm/  n. <生>生态系统

Waymo及其竞争对手并不是唯一被这项技术的前景所吸引的公司。其他希望从中获利的公司包括Uber等传统网约车公司、Mercedes-Benz和Volkswagen等汽车制造商，以及英伟达（nvidia）等技术供应商——更不用说中国蓬勃发展的自动驾驶出租车生态系统了。

They are betting that the market for self-driving technology will prove to be vast. Americans currently spend around $50bn a year on ride-hailing. Then there is the possibility of selling self-driving software to carmakers and manufacturers of other vehicles, such as long-haul trucks and delivery vans. Dara Khosrowshahi, Uber’s chief executive, has said that the market for self-driving technology could be worth $1trn or more in America alone. That raises two questions: when will the autonomous revolution hit full speed; and who will come out ahead?

重点词汇：

currently  /'kʌrəntli/  adv. 当前;目前

possibility  /ˌpɒsə'bɪləti/  n. 可能性

manufacturer  /ˌmænju'fæktʃərə(r)/  n. 制造商, 制造厂

vehicle  /'viːəkl/  n. 交通工具, 车辆

long-haul  /'lɒŋ hɔːl/  adj. (尤指飞机)长途运输的

executive  /ɪɡ'zekjətɪv/  n. 主管，执行官

autonomous  /ɔː'tɒnəməs/  adj.自动的

revolution  /ˌrevə'luːʃn/  n. 革命

他们押注自动驾驶技术的市场将是广阔的。美国人目前每年在网约车服务上的花费约为500亿美元。此外还存在向汽车制造商及其他车辆（如长途卡车和配送货车）生产商出售自动驾驶软件的可能性。优步首席执行官Dara Khosrowshahi曾表示，仅在美国，自动驾驶技术市场的价值就可能达到1万亿美元或更高。这引出了两个问题：自动驾驶革命何时会全面加速？谁将脱颖而出？

To answer these questions, start with the technology. It is easy to forget the miracle of a self-driving car when sitting in a Waymo or a Zoox, because it quickly feels so familiar that you forget your life is in the hands of a computer on wheels. Unlike other robots that operate in clean, controlled environments such as factories, robotaxis have to deal with the messiness of everyday life—road rage, clueless pedestrians and pets, and weather conditions like snow that can be as soft as slush or hard as a brick wall.

重点词汇：

miracle  /'mɪrəkl/  n. 奇迹,令人惊奇的事

messy （messiness） /'mesi/  adj. 肮脏的，污秽的

clueless  /'kluːləs/  adj. 无能的;笨的

pedestrian  /pə'destriən/  n. 步行者

要回答这些问题，我们先从技术说起。当你坐在Waymo或Zoox的自动驾驶汽车里时，你会很容易忘记这项技术的奇迹——因为它很快会让人感到如此熟悉，以至于忘记自己的生命正托付给一个轮子上的计算机。与在工厂等清洁、受控环境中运行的其他机器人不同，自动驾驶出租车必须应对日常生活的混乱状况——路怒症、无知的行人和宠物，以及诸如积雪般松软或砖墙般坚硬的天气条件。

Several innovations have combined to make that possible. Robotaxis rely on sensors such as cameras, laser-based lidars, microphones and radars to assess road conditions, judge distances and manage speed. They then use artificial intelligence both in the car and in the cloud to mimic the way human drivers process such information and react to it. And as robotaxi services have expanded, they have hoovered up ever more data, allowing them to refine their algorithms. The rise of multi-modal generative-AI models, which weave together text, images and sounds, has also accelerated progress, including by making it easier to train autonomous systems using simulations and teach them to react to unusual situations.

重点词汇：

innovation  /ˌɪnə'veɪʃn/  n. 改革, 革新

combine  /kəm'baɪn/  v.联合，结合

microphone  /'maɪkrəfəʊn/  n. 扩音器, 麦克风

judge  /dʒʌdʒ/  v.审判；评判

mimic  /'mɪmɪk/  v.模仿，模拟

refine  /rɪ'faɪn/  v.精炼，提纯，改善

algorithm  /'ælɡərɪðəm/  n. 运算法则

accelerate  /ək'seləreɪt/  v. (使)加快, (使)增速

simulation  /ˌsɪmju'leɪʃn/  n. 模仿;模拟

几项创新结合起来使这成为可能。自动驾驶出租车依靠摄像头、激光雷达、麦克风和雷达等传感器来评估路况、判断距离和控制速度。然后，他们在汽车和云端使用人工智能来模仿人类驾驶员处理这些信息并做出反应的方式。随着自动驾驶出租车服务的扩展，他们收集了越来越多的数据，使他们能够完善自己的算法。将文本、图像和声音编织在一起的多模态生成人工智能模型的兴起也加速了进步，包括使使用模拟训练自主系统变得更容易，并教会它们对异常情况做出反应。

For the industry, building confidence that self-driving vehicles are safe is vital. Research conducted last year by Waymo with Swiss Re, an insurance giant, showed that its robotaxis generated 88% fewer property-damage claims and 92% fewer bodily-injury claims than the average human during 25m miles of driving, a performance which has improved further since. But public trust is easily shattered. A grisly accident in 2023 involving a robotaxi operated by Cruise, a competitor to Waymo, became existential after the company failed to provide full transparency during a federal investigation. General Motors, Cruise’s owner, subsequently shut its robotaxi service down.

重点词汇：

insurance  /ɪn'ʃʊərəns/  n. 保险

shatter  /'ʃætə(r)/  v.打碎，破坏

grisly  /'ɡrɪzli/  adj. 可怕的；厉害  的

existential  /ˌeɡzɪ'stenʃl/  adj. 有关存在的,存在主义的

transparency  /træns'pærənsi/  n. 透明；透明度

investigation  /ɪnˌvestɪ'ɡeɪʃn/  n.调查，侦查

subsequently  /'sʌbsɪkwəntli/  adv. 其后,随后

对该行业而言，建立对自动驾驶车辆安全性的信心至关重要。Waymo去年与保险巨头瑞士再保险公司合作的研究显示，在行驶2500万英里的过程中，其自动驾驶出租车产生的财产损失索赔比人类驾驶员平均少88%，人身伤害索赔少92%，且此后的表现还在进一步提升。但公众信任很容易被摧毁。2023年Waymo的竞争对手Cruise运营的一辆自动驾驶出租车发生了一起严重事故，由于该公司未能在联邦调查期间保持完全透明，此事演变成了生存危机。Cruise的所有者通用汽车随后关闭了其自动驾驶出租车服务。

Such incidents risk setting back the industry’s efforts to win over policymakers. Under President Donald Trump, the Department of Transportation has said it will develop federal regulations for autonomous vehicles, including robotaxis. But there are still myriad state-by-state rules (California has two agencies that regulate robotaxis). Some cities such as Seattle put up roadblocks as well. Everything we do today is to build trust and safety, and we can’t scale the technology without that, says Chris Mooney, a Waymo executive.

重点词汇：

policymaker  /'pɒləsimeɪkə(r)/  n. 政策制定者,决策人

regulation  /ˌreɡju'leɪʃn/  n. 章程；规章制度

myriad  /'mɪriəd/  adj. 无数的；种种的

此类事件可能会使该行业争取政策制定者的努力受挫。在Donald Trump总统的领导下，交通部表示将为自动驾驶汽车制定联邦法规，包括机器人出租车。但各州仍有无数的规定（加州有两家监管机器人出租车的机构）。西雅图等一些城市也设置了路障。Waymo高管Chris Mooney表示：“我们今天所做的一切都是为了建立信任和安全，没有这些，我们就无法扩展这项技术。”

Still, the speed at which Waymo is accelerating its city-by-city rollout suggests it is becoming increasingly confident in the safety of its service. Turning it into a profitable business, however, is another matter. Human drivers are estimated to account for 50-70% of the cost of a traditional ride-hailing service such as Uber, so stripping them out sounds like a quick way to undercut the incumbents. Yet all robotaxi services currently lose money, including Waymo. (In addition to receiving fistfuls of cash from Alphabet, the company raised $5.6bn in a share offering to outside investors last year.)

重点词汇：

increasingly  /ɪn'kriːsɪŋli/  adv. 日益, 越来越多地

profitable  /'prɒfɪtəbl/  adj. 有利可图的; 有益的

account for  占据

incumbent  /ɪn'kʌmbənt/  n. 在职者，现任官员

fistfuls  /'fɪstfʊl/  n. 一把

不过，Waymo加速推进城市拓展的速度表明，其对该服务安全性的信心正日益增强。然而，将其转变为盈利业务则是另一回事。据估计，在Uber等传统网约车服务中，人力司机成本占比达50%-70%，因此取消司机似乎是快速削弱现有竞争者优势的捷径。但目前所有自动驾驶出租车服务均处于亏损状态，Waymo也不例外。（该公司除了从Alphabet获得大量资金外，去年还通过向外部投资者发行股票筹集了56亿美元。）