Contraction in US and cooling Chinese demand are expected hurdles for market
美国市场收缩、中国需求降温成主要阻力
Electric vehicle sales are set for their slowest annual growth since the pandemic upended the global economy in 2020, as the shift away from the internal combustion engine confronts new hurdles.
随着电动化转型面临新的挑战，电动车销量预计将出现自2020年疫情冲击全球经济以来最慢的年度增长。
A cooling in red-hot Chinese demand, weaker growth in Europe and a contraction in the US market will see EV sales rise 13 per cent to 24mn in 2026, down from an estimated 22 per cent increase last year, according to research firm Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.
研究机构Benchmark Mineral Intelligence表示，受中国需求降温、欧洲增长乏力以及美国市场萎缩影响，全球电动车销量2026年预计增长13%，达到2400万辆，低于去年约22%的增幅。
The Trump administration’s ditching of tax incentives for EVs, the EU’s watering down of a ban on petrol cars that was due to take effect in 2035 and a slowing in China’s breakneck pace of growth will shape the fortunes of the industry this year, say executives and analysts.
业内高管和分析人士指出，特朗普政府取消电动车税收激励、欧盟对原定于2035年实施的燃油车禁令作出让步，以及中国增长节奏放缓，将共同影响今年电动车行业的走向。
The more moderate outlook follows several years of explosive China-led demand that had appeared to herald the rapid demise of petrol-based cars, which have powered the auto industry’s profits for more than a century.
随着中国引领数年的需求爆发期告一段落，市场开始降温。燃油车在过去一个多世纪中一直是汽车行业利润的主要来源，而电动车热潮一度被视为燃油车快速退场的信号。
Mark Wakefield, managing director at consultancy AlixPartners, said: “We have headwinds in China, which has been the engine of growth, and there’s probably more to come on softening of European regulations.”
AlixPartners常务董事Mark Wakefield表示：“中国这一增长引擎正面临逆风，而且欧洲监管放宽可能还会进一步显现。”
US sales will tumble 29 per cent to 1.1mn vehicles this year after reaching a record 1.5mn in 2025, according to Benchmark. Sales in Europe are forecast to climb 14 per cent to 4.9mn following an estimated 33 per cent increase in 2025.
根据Benchmark的预测，美国电动车销量去年创下了150万辆的历史新高后，预计将在2026年暴跌29%至110万辆。欧洲市场继2025年实现33%的增幅后，预计进一步增长14%，达到490万辆。
In China, the largest EV market, sales are expected to hit 15.5mn, up from 13.3mn in 2025, according to Benchmark’s forecasts, which include full EVs as well as plug-in hybrids.
中国作为全球最大电动车市场，预计销量将在2026年达到1550万辆，较2025年的1330万辆有所增长。Benchmark的预测涵盖了纯电动汽车和插电式混合动力车。
Although still a double-digit pace, the projected growth in China is below that recorded in the five years to 2025, when sales, including those of plug-in hybrids, soared from about 1.1mn to more than 13mn.
尽管增速依然保持两位数，但中国的预计增幅低于2021至2025年的表现。2021-2025年间，包括插电式混合动力车在内的销量，从约110万辆激增至1300万辆以上。
Chinese manufacturers, led by BYD, helped spur sales at home and in Europe last year, through the rollout of cheaper models that undercut legacy European and US carmakers.
去年，以比亚迪为首的中国制造商通过推出较欧美车更便宜的车型，助推了中国本土与欧洲市场的销售。
BYD replaced Tesla as the world’s biggest electric-car maker in 2025, according to figures released this week, as the Chinese group made inroads in Europe and other overseas markets.
根据本周发布的数据，比亚迪已取代特斯拉成为全球最大电动车制造商。比亚迪在欧洲及其他海外市场高歌猛进。
This year executives expect a continued pick-up in sales of hybrids and plug-in hybrids, which have grown more popular as inadequate charging infrastructure puts consumers off buying fully electric vehicles.
今年，业界高管预计混合动力车和插电式混合动力车的销量将持续增长。充电基础设施不足，削弱了消费者购买纯电动车的意愿，这使得混合动力车型的市场接受度相对提升。
“Both markets (in the US and Europe) are learning that partial electrification is as interesting as full electrification,” said Ford chief executive Jim Farley.
福特首席执行官Jim Farley表示：“美国和欧洲市场都意识到，部分电动化与完全电动化同样具有吸引力。”
In a sign of the upheaval in the US market, Ford last month disclosed a $19.5bn charge after ditching a series of EV models, including its flagship F-150 all-electric pick-up truck, to focus on more profitable hybrids and ICE-based vehicles.
在美国市场动荡之中，福特上月披露将计提195亿美元的费用，原因是放弃了一系列电动车型，包括旗舰车型F-150全电动皮卡，转而专注于盈利性更好的混合动力车和燃油车。
Farley said EVs’ share of the new car market in the US could fall from about 10 per cent last year to 5 per cent in the near term.
法利表示，美国新车市场中电动车的市场份额可能会从去年的约10%下降至近期的5%。
In contrast to the US, most executives expect the Chinese market to expand in 2026 but more slowly than in recent years, when Beijing backed the EV industry with generous subsidies and tax incentives in a bid to turn it into a global champion.
与美国市场不同，大多数高管预计中国市场在2026年将继续增长，但增速将较近年来放缓。此前，中国政府通过大额补贴和税收优惠扶持电动车产业，旨在将其打造为全球领导者。
UBS predicts sales in China — of both full EVs and plug-in hybrids — will climb 8 per cent this year.
瑞银预测，中国市场（包括纯电动汽车和插电式混合动力车）的销量将在今年增长8%。
Although Beijing has rolled back support for the industry, this week the government extended its trade-in subsidy policy, which includes discounts for EVs, into a third year.
尽管中国政府已减少对电动车行业的扶持，但本周政府宣布将延续电动车置换补贴政策，连续第三年实施相关折扣措施。
Chinese sales could still benefit from wider stimulus measures intended to boost domestic consumption as well as local government investment in charging infrastructure.
中国的销量仍可能受益于刺激国内消费的广泛政策以及地方政府在充电基础设施上的投资。
Executives say that the prospect of a tougher year means carmakers must continue to adapt their line-ups during the shift from petrol engines.
高管们表示，面对更加严峻的市场环境，汽车制造商必须在电动化转型的过程中继续调整产品组合。
Markus Haupt, chief executive of Seat-Cupra, the Spanish mass-market brand owned by Volkswagen, said that the group needed to keep its product line-up flexible during the transition but added: “We are convinced that the future is electric. We need to decarbonise mobility.”
Seat-Cupra首席执行官Markus Haupt表示：“我们必须在转型过程中保持产品组合的灵活性，但我们相信未来是电动化的。我们需要实现脱碳化出行。”
10个月宝宝每天需要喝多少奶粉？
