经济学人 | 外刊听读训练 | 自动驾驶出租车拉开序幕(下)

That is partly because their vehicles are expensive; they are kitted out with costly safety features and trained on pricey AI chips. And unlike ride-hailing firms such as Uber, which rely on owner-drivers, robotaxi operators have to cover the cost both of acquiring and managing their fleets, including cleaning, fuel, maintenance and parking. They also need human supervisors to monitor their vehicles in case things go wrong.

重点词汇：

vehicle  /'viːəkl/  n. 交通工具, 车辆

kitted out with  装备有

operator  /'ɒpəreɪtə(r)/  n.运营商，经营者

maintenance  /'meɪntənəns/  n. 维持; 维修; 保养;

supervisor  /'suːpəvaɪzə(r)/  n. 监督者, 管理者

部分原因是他们的车很贵；它们配备了昂贵的安全功能，并接受了昂贵的人工智能芯片的训练。与Uber等依赖车主司机的叫车公司不同，机器人出租车运营商必须承担收购和管理车队的成本，包括清洁、燃料、维护和停车。他们还需要人类监督员来监控他们的车辆，以防出现问题。

As a result, Augustin Wegsheider of BCG, a consultancy, estimates that self-driving vehicles cost about $7-9 a mile to operate, compared with $2-3 a mile for traditional ride-hailers and $1 a mile for personal cars. Cutting costs has not been a priority of the robotaxi companies so far, says Philipp Kampshoff of McKinsey, another consultancy. They haven’t even scratched the surface, because mission number one was making the operation safe. McKinsey estimates that it will take a decade to bring costs below $2 a mile.

重点词汇：

consultancy  /kən'sʌltənsi/  n.咨询公司

estimate  /'estɪmeɪt/  v.估计，判断

priority  /praɪ'ɒrəti/  n. 优先；优先考虑的事

scratch  /skrætʃ/  v.划出，触及

因此，咨询公司波士顿咨询公司（BCG）的Augustin Wegsheider估计，自动驾驶汽车的运营成本约为每英里7-9美元，而传统的叫车服务的运营成本为每英里2-3美元，私家车的运营成本为每英里1美元。另一家咨询公司McKinsey的Philipp Kampshoff表示，到目前为止，削减成本并不是自动驾驶出租车公司的首要任务。他们还没触及表面，因为首要任务是确保行动安全。麦肯锡估计，将成本降至每英里2美元以下需要10年时间。

Cheaper hardware will contribute. Estimates for the cost of Waymo’s current generation of robotaxis range from $130,000 to $200,000 each. Using the sporty Jaguari-pace as the starting point hasn’t helped to keep costs down. This month the company started testing the more modest Hyundai ioniq 5, equipped with Waymo’s newer generation of self-driving technology which requires fewer sensors. The cost of those sensors is coming down, too. American-made lidars that used to cost around $100,000 are now little more than $1,000.

重点词汇：

contribute  /kən'trɪbjuːt/  v.捐献，贡献出

equipped with  装备着...，有...的配置

sensor  /'sensə(r)/  n.传感器

硬件成本降低将可助力这一进程。据估算，Waymo当前一代自动驾驶出租车的单车成本在13万至20万美元之间。选用运动型捷豹I-PACE作为基础车型无助于控制成本。本月，该公司开始测试更经济的现代IONIQ 5车型，该车搭载Waymo新一代自动驾驶技术，所需传感器数量更少。这些传感器的成本也在持续下降。过去售价约10万美元的美国产激光雷达，如今价格已降至略高于1000美元。

The economics of robotaxis can be improved in other ways. To keep utilisation of its vehicles high, Waymo’s approach to expansion has been to deploy a relatively small number of cabs in several markets, rather than trying to saturate one in particular, though the tactic has obvious limits. Instead of managing all its vehicles, it is also starting to forge alliances with fleet operators, such as Avis, a car-rental firm, to help handle day-to-day operations.

重点词汇：

economics  /ˌiːkə'nɒmɪks/  n.经济状况

utilisation  /ˌju:tilai'zeiʃən/  n.利用

expansion  /ɪk'spænʃn/  n.扩大，扩张

relatively  /'relətɪvli/  adv. 相对地，比较而言

saturate  /'sætʃəreɪt/  v.使饱和

tactic  /'tæktɪk/  n.方法，策略

forge  /fɔːdʒ/  v.形成，缔造

alliance  /ə'laɪəns/  n.结盟，联盟

自动驾驶出租车的经济效益还可通过其他方式提升。为提高车辆使用率，Waymo的扩张策略是在多个市场投放相对少量的出租车，而非集中饱和某个单一市场，尽管这种策略存在明显局限。除了自主管理车队，Waymo也开始与安飞士等汽车租赁公司建立联盟合作，由后者协助处理日常运营事务。

Off to the races

比赛开始了

Once robotaxis prove to be sufficiently safe and no more expensive than a human-driven cab, demand may accelerate rapidly. The question then is who will conquer the market. For now, Waymo is clearly the front-runner, at least in America. Its self-driving technology has been designated as Level 4, which means that in pre-approved areas its vehicles can operate without direct human supervision, whereas Tesla’s robotaxis are between Levels 2 and 3, meaning they still need a supervisor in the car. Because of Waymo’s focus on safety, it has kitted out its cars with more expensive hardware than Tesla. For instance, its latest vehicles have 13 cameras, six radars and four lidars, whereas Tesla relies solely on eight cameras. That has helped Waymo win over regulators.

重点词汇：

sufficiently  /sə'fɪʃntli/  adv. 足够地,充分地

accelerate  /ək'seləreɪt/  v.加快，加速

conquer  /'kɒŋkə(r)/  v.征服，克服

designate  /'dezɪɡneɪt/  v.标明，命名，委任

supervision  /ˌsuːpə'vɪʒn/  n. 监督, 管理

regulator  /'reɡjuleɪtə(r)/  n.监管机构

一旦自动驾驶出租车被证明足够安全，而且不会比人类驾驶的出租车更昂贵，需求可能会迅速增加。接下来的问题是谁将征服这个市场。目前，Waymo显然是领跑者，至少在美国是这样。它的自动驾驶技术被指定为4级，这意味着在预先批准的区域，它的车辆可以在没有人类直接监督的情况下运行，而特斯拉的自动驾驶出租车处于2级到3级之间，这意味着它们仍然需要车内的监督者。由于Waymo对安全的关注，它为自己的汽车配备了比特斯拉更昂贵的硬件。例如，它最新的汽车有13个摄像头，6个雷达和4个激光雷达，而特斯拉只依靠8个摄像头。这帮助Waymo赢得了监管机构的支持。

Ali Kani of Nvidia, which sellsAI chips to all comers in the robotaxi race, suggests that once Waymo has proved the safety case “without hiccups”, it may be able to cut costs by shedding some of the hardware. For his part, Mr Musk is betting that Tesla’s approach of relying solely on cameras and AI-enabled software will give it the edge as its technology improves, with less hardware making its robotaxis cheaper than Waymo’s.

重点词汇：

hiccup  /'hɪkʌp/  n.暂时性的小问题

bet  /bet/  v.下赌注

向所有自动驾驶竞争者提供AI芯片的英伟达公司高管Ali Kani指出，待Waymo“毫无瑕疵地”证明其安全案例后，或许可以通过精简硬件来降低成本。马斯克则押注特斯拉纯视觉方案——随着AI软件技术进步，更少的硬件配置将使特斯拉自动驾驶出租车成本低于Waymo。

For now, both Waymo and Tesla are keeping their technology close to their chests. In time, that may change. Waymo could take inspiration from another Alphabet endeavour—the Android operating system—and try to license its software to others. Mr Musk has said he may do the same with Tesla’s self-driving technology. Aicha Evans, the chief executive of Zoox, says it intends to remain a fully integrated robotaxi service. But some reckon its self-driving technology could also be used in Amazon’s logistics operations. Other firms such as Wayve, a British startup backed by Nvidia and SoftBank, a Japanese investor, have opted to focus on self-driving software, rather than offering an integrated robotaxi service with all the cost and complexity that entails. Earlier this year it announced it would start selling its technology to Nissan, a Japanese carmaker.

重点词汇：

chest  /tʃest/  n.胸膛，箱子

inspiration  /ˌɪnspə'reɪʃn/  n. 灵感；妙计

endeavour  /ɪn'devə(r)/  n. 尽力,竭力

license  /'laɪsns/  v.许可，特许

executive  /ɪɡ'zekjətɪv/  n. 主管，高级行政人员

integrated  /'ɪntɪɡreɪtɪd/  adj. 整体的；完全的

logistics  /lə'dʒɪstɪks/  n. 后勤；物流

complexity  /kəm'pleksəti/  n. 复杂性

目前，Waymo和特斯拉都对自己的技术守口如瓶。假以时日，这种情况可能会改变。Waymo可以从Alphabet的另一项努力——Android操作系统——中获得灵感，并尝试将其软件授权给其他公司。马斯克曾表示，他可能会对特斯拉的自动驾驶技术采取同样的措施。Zoox首席执行官Aicha Evans表示，该公司打算继续提供全面整合的自动驾驶出租车服务。但一些人认为，它的自动驾驶技术也可以用于亚马逊的物流业务。其他公司，如由英伟达（Nvidia）和日本投资者软银（SoftBank）支持的英国初创公司Wayve，选择专注于自动驾驶软件，而不是提供集成的自动驾驶出租车服务，这需要付出高昂的成本和复杂性。今年早些时候，它宣布将开始向日本汽车制造商日产出售其技术。

Robotaxi providers will also have to decide how to work with the big ride-hailing companies, particularly Uber. In 2020 it abandoned an effort to develop its own self-driving technology, but has since set its sights on becoming the preferred booking platform for robotaxis. In some cities, such as Phoenix, it already takes bookings on behalf of Waymo. Elsewhere it is hoping to compete. It has struck a deal with Lucid, an electric-vehicle maker, and Nuro, which builds self-driving systems, to roll out 20,000 robotaxis over the next six years. It also plans to enter London in partnership with Wayve and a yet-to-be-named carmaker.

重点词汇：

platform  /'plætfɔːm/  n.平台，站台

compete  /kəm'piːt/  v.竞赛；竞争

partnership  /'pɑːtnəʃɪp/  n.伙伴关系，合作关系

自动驾驶出租车供应商还需决定如何与大型网约车公司（尤其是Uber）合作。2020年，Uber放弃了自主研发自动驾驶技术的计划，但此后将目标转向成为自动驾驶出租车的首选预订平台。在凤凰城等部分城市，Uber已开始代表Waymo接受预订。在其他地区，Uber则希望参与竞争。Uber已与电动汽车制造商Lucid及自动驾驶系统开发商Nuro达成协议，计划在未来六年内投放2万辆机器人出租车。Uber还计划与Wayve及一家尚未公开名称的汽车制造商合作，进军伦敦市场。

Uber’s bet is that human drivers and robotaxis will co-exist for years to come. Eventually, however, robotaxis will become the cheaper option, says Sarfraz Maredia, Uber’s head of autonomy, which is why the company is manoeuvring itself into position now. Its customer base gives it a big advantage; Sensor Tower reckons Uber has 42mmaus, dwarfing Waymo.

重点词汇：

autonomy  /ɔː'tɒnəmi/  n.自主权，自动

manoeuvring（manoeuvre） /mə'nuːvə(r)/  v.操纵，布局

advantage  /əd'vɑːntɪdʒ/  n.优点，优势

Uber的预测是，人类司机与自动驾驶出租车将在未来数年内共存。但Uber自动驾驶业务负责人Sarfraz Maredia指出，自动驾驶出租车最终将成为更廉价的选择，这正是该公司现阶段积极布局的原因。其庞大的客户基础赋予巨大优势；Sensor Tower数据显示优步拥有4200万月活用户，远超Waymo。

Then there is Nvidia. Perhaps predictably, the AI revolution’s biggest beneficiary is carving out a role for itself as an essential supplier for self-driving vehicles. Alongside Uber, it is supporting carmakers that are developing autonomous systems of their own, including Mercedes-Benz and Stellantis (whose largest shareholder, Exor, owns a stake in The Economist’s parent company). At the same time, it is selling vast numbers of graphics-processing units (GPUs) to Waymo to run its AI simulations, and sit inside its cars to process the data pouring in from their sensors and calculate how to respond. Tesla has likewise spent billions of dollars training its AI systems on 100,000 Nvidia GPUs. It won’t be an Nvidia cab that rolls up to people’s doors. But the world’s most valuable company will be sure to take its cut of the fare.

重点词汇：

predictably  /prɪ'dɪktəbli/  adv. 可预见地

beneficiary  /ˌbenɪ'fɪʃəri/  n. 受益者；受惠者

essential  /ɪ'senʃl/  adj. 基本的；必要的

autonomous  /ɔː'tɒnəməs/  adj.自动的

shareholder  /'ʃeəhəʊldə(r)/  n. 股东

simulation  /ˌsɪmju'leɪʃn/  n. 模仿;模拟

calculate  /'kælkjuleɪt/  v.计算，估计

valuable  /'væljuəbl/  adj.有价值的

还有英伟达。也许可以预见的是，人工智能革命的最大受益者正在为自己塑造一个角色，成为自动驾驶汽车的重要供应商。除了Uber，它还支持正在开发自主系统的汽车制造商，包括梅赛德斯-奔驰和Stellantis（其最大股东Exor拥有《经济学人》母公司的股份）。与此同时，它正在向Waymo出售大量图形处理单元（gpu），以运行其人工智能模拟，并坐在车内处理从传感器涌入的数据并计算如何响应。特斯拉同样花费了数十亿美元在10万块英伟达gpu上训练其人工智能系统。它不会是一辆能开到人们家门口的英伟达出租车。但这家全球市值最高的公司肯定会从中分一杯羹。