On the streets of Palo Alto, Uber drivers are facing the reality of an autonomous future. “The Waymos are everywhere now and soon we’re going to be replaced,” says Erik, who started serving passengers around Silicon Valley in his red Tesla Model 3 during the Covid-19 pandemic.
在帕洛阿尔托的街头，优步司机们正直面自动驾驶时代的现实。“现在Waymo无处不在，很快我们就要被取代了，”埃里克说道。他在新冠疫情期间开始驾驶自己的红色特斯拉Model 3，在硅谷一带接送乘客。
With self-driving vehicles on his turf, the former baker is getting ready to pivot. Because his car’s driver-assist system can navigate the wide suburban streets almost entirely on its own, he intends to take out a loan to finance a small fleet of Teslas after Elon Musk promised that his customers will soon be able to send their cars out to work for them.
面对家门口越来越多的自动驾驶车辆，这位前面包师已准备转型。由于他的车配备的辅助驾驶系统几乎能独自应对宽阔的郊区道路，他打算贷款购置一支小型特斯拉车队，此前马斯克曾承诺，车主很快就能让自己的车“出去打工赚钱”。
Fifteen years after Google first unveiled its self-driving car project and kick-started a race that has already swallowed tens of billions of dollars of investment, so-called robotaxis finally appear ready to be a part of everyday life.
自谷歌15年前首次公开其自动驾驶汽车项目、掀起一场至今已吞噬数百亿美元投资的竞赛以来，所谓的“自动驾驶出租车”（robotaxi）终于似乎准备好融入人们的日常生活。
Waymo — owned by Alphabet, Google’s parent company — is already operating more than 250,000 paid rides per week across five US cities, surpassing ride-hailing app Lyft’s market share in parts of San Francisco. Tesla launched a limited robotaxi service in Austin last month, while Amazon-owned Zoox is confident that it will go live in Las Vegas later this year.
Alphabet（谷歌母公司）旗下的Waymo目前已在美国五个城市每周提供超过25万次付费行程，在旧金山部分地区甚至超越了网约车平台Lyft的市场份额。特斯拉上月在奥斯汀推出了有限规模的robotaxi服务，而亚马逊旗下的Zoox也自信地表示，今年晚些时候将在拉斯维加斯正式上线运营。
While the US is moving ahead more rapidly in the autonomous space than other countries, scaling up those services beyond a handful of cities in the domestic market remains a challenge. Companies must not only prove that robotaxis are safe and reliable, but also need to secure tens of billions of dollars more in capital investment. Margins in the ride-hailing market are also notoriously thin and the costs of operating a robotaxi service at scale are largely untested.
尽管美国在自动驾驶领域的发展速度领先全球，但即便在国内市场，将服务从少数几个城市大规模铺开仍面临巨大挑战。企业不仅要证明robotaxi安全可靠，还必须再筹集数百亿美元的资本投入。此外，网约车市场的利润本就微薄，而规模化运营robotaxi的成本结构尚未经过充分验证。
Even the largest American automakers, GM and Ford — not to mention Apple, which killed off its car project last year — are rethinking their plans for self-driving cars. That leaves the future of the US robotaxi market in the hands of just a few of the richest, most determined tech giants — and a handful of start-ups bold enough to challenge them.
就连美国最大的两家车企，通用汽车和福特（更不用说去年已放弃造车计划的苹果），也在重新评估其自动驾驶战略。这使得美国robotaxi市场的未来，如今掌握在少数几家财力雄厚、意志坚定的科技巨头，以及少数敢于挑战它们的初创公司手中。
The Financial Times has interviewed more than a dozen current and former senior executives and employees at Tesla, Waymo and Zoox, as well as start-up founders and their backers, to explore how these companies are racing to scale operations and win over investors.
为探究这些公司如何竞相扩大运营规模并赢得投资者青睐，《金融时报》采访了十多位特斯拉、Waymo和Zoox的现任及前任高管与员工，以及多家初创企业的创始人及其投资人。
Advocates of autonomous vehicles have long argued that they are safer than cars driven by humans: they do not get distracted, text, or drink and drive — and they have a 360-degree field of vision.
自动驾驶支持者长期以来一直主张：自动驾驶汽车比人类驾驶更安全——它们不会分心、不会发短信、不会酒驾，而且拥有360度全景视野。
But for the benefits to be realised, investors need to believe that the economics of robotaxis can deliver meaningful returns not just in Silicon Valley but for billions of people all over the world.
但要真正实现这些优势，投资者必须相信：robotaxi的商业模式不仅能给硅谷带来可观回报，还能惠及全球数十亿人。
“There was a long period of time where autonomous vehicle progress was overhyped and the substance didn’t match up to the headlines. You could argue [today] the reverse is true: they are here [and] they are scaling,” says Andrew Macdonald, Uber’s president. “[The debate] is transitioning from, ‘is this technology solvable?’ to ‘is this commercialisable?’”
“过去很长一段时间，自动驾驶技术被过度炒作，实际进展远不如媒体报道那般亮眼。你甚至可以说，如今情况恰恰相反：它们已经来了，而且正在规模化。”优步总裁安德鲁·麦克唐纳（Andrew Macdonald）表示，“争论的重点正从‘这项技术是否可行’转向‘它是否具备商业化潜力’。”
Waymo initially launched paid-for public services in Phoenix in 2020. But its first real test came when it began commercial services in San Francisco, a more dense and complex urban environment, in August 2023. By then, it was operating roughly 10,000 paid rides per week, according to regulatory filings. This year, it is on course to have carried 20mn customers.
Waymo最初于2020年在凤凰城推出付费公众服务。但真正的考验始于2023年8月，当时它在人口更密集、路况更复杂的旧金山启动商业运营。根据监管文件，彼时其周订单量约为1万单。而今年，Waymo有望累计服务2000万名乘客。
Almost a decade after it was spun out of Google to be a standalone business under the Alphabet umbrella, Waymo’s head of business development and strategic partnerships, Nicole Gavel, says it is now in “a mode of growth”. “We’ve been focused on safety from the get-go and now, we’ve got the technology that scales, [and] we’ve got the business model that scales,” she says.
在脱离谷歌、成为Alphabet旗下独立业务近十年后，Waymo商务拓展与战略合作负责人妮可·加维尔（Nicole Gavel）表示，公司如今已进入“增长模式”。“我们从一开始就聚焦安全，现在，我们拥有了可扩展的技术，也建立了可扩展的商业模式。”她说。
Waymo has pulled well ahead of its rivals by making its services publicly available to millions of people. However, its vehicles — which use bespoke sensors attached to Jaguar I-Pace SUVs — are costly and the company has never disclosed whether its robotaxi service is profitable. Waymo declined to comment, but many analysts assume that the total cost of its current vehicles is close to $150,000 each.
Waymo通过向数百万公众开放服务，已大幅领先竞争对手。但在捷豹I-Pace SUV上加装定制传感器的车辆成本高昂，公司从未披露robotaxi业务是否盈利。Waymo拒绝对此置评，但许多分析师估计，其当前每辆车的总成本接近15万美元。
“In terms of unit economics, we believe the autonomous space in the US will remain largely unprofitable until scale increases and vehicle costs materially decline, likely to under $100k,” says Doug Anmuth, an analyst at JPMorgan.
摩根大通分析师道格·安默斯（Doug Anmuth）表示：“从单位经济角度看，我们认为美国自动驾驶领域在规模显著扩大、车辆成本大幅下降（很可能降至10万美元以下）之前，仍将基本处于亏损状态。”
Waymo is seeking to cut costs by refining its design — its upcoming sixth-generation “driver” uses half as many cameras — and through deals with South Korea’s Hyundai and Zeekr, which is owned by China’s Geely, for less expensive vehicles.
为降低成本，Waymo正优化设计，即将推出的第六代“自动驾驶系统”摄像头数量减少了一半，并与韩国现代汽车及中国吉利旗下的极氪（Zeekr）达成合作，以获取价格更低的车型。
Gavel says that Waymo’s initial focus was on ensuring its technology worked safely. “Now we are investing in driving costs down as well,” she adds.
加维尔表示，Waymo初期重点是确保技术安全运行，“现在，我们也在大力推动成本下降。”
Waymo, which already has more than 1,500 vehicles on the road, plans to equip at least 2,000 cars before the end of next year. A new factory in Phoenix, which it operates in conjunction with automotive supplier Magna, will eventually be capable of equipping “tens of thousands” of vehicles a year.
目前Waymo已有1500多辆车上路，计划在明年年底前将车队扩充至至少2000辆。其与汽车供应商麦格纳（Magna）在凤凰城合建的新工厂，最终将具备年产“数万辆”自动驾驶车辆的能力。
While Waymo adapts existing vehicles, Amazon’s Zoox is producing its own bespoke robotaxis: toaster-shaped glass boxes with no steering wheel. The company opened a 220,000 square foot final assembly site in Hayward, California, last month. By the end of next year, Zoox hopes to produce roughly 5,000 robotaxis per annum, with the aim of 10,000 vehicles a year in the future. It has not disclosed the cost of its vehicles, but Zoox’s custom cars are more expensive than Waymo’s, according to a person familiar with the matter.
与Waymo改造现有车型不同，亚马逊旗下的Zoox选择自主研发专属robotaxi：外形酷似烤面包机的全玻璃车厢，没有方向盘。上月，该公司在加州海沃德启用了一座占地22万平方英尺的终装工厂。到明年年底，Zoox希望年产量达到约5000辆，并计划未来提升至每年1万辆。虽然未公布具体成本，但据知情人士透露，Zoox定制车辆比Waymo的更昂贵。
Tesla is taking a radically different approach, using its existing Model Y SUV for its limited robotaxi service in Texas. The company only uses cameras, eschewing the use of lidar and radar, significantly lowering costs. Its sensor suite is estimated at roughly $400, with plans to retail its so-called Cybercab — which Musk says will go into mass production at the end of next year — for less than $30,000.
特斯拉则采取截然不同的路径：在得克萨斯州的有限robotaxi服务中直接使用现成的Model Y SUV。该公司仅依赖摄像头，完全摒弃激光雷达（LiDAR）和毫米波雷达，大幅降低成本。其传感器套件成本估计仅约400美元。马斯克表示，公司计划明年下半年开始量产名为“Cybercab”的新车型，售价将低于3万美元。
Although Tesla is operating a fleet of its own vehicles to start, it plans for customer vehicles to be deployed on the service in an Airbnb-style sharing model. This could improve the economics of its robotaxi business, but first it must overcome scepticism about the safety and reliability of its self-driving system after its Austin debut included several hazardous incidents. This prompted questions from the National Highway Transit Safety Administration (NHTSA), the regulator that has also investigated Waymo and Zoox for incidents involving other road users.
尽管特斯拉初期使用自有车队运营，但其长远目标是让用户车辆以类似Airbnb的共享模式加入服务网络。这有望改善其robotaxi业务的经济模型，但前提是必须先消除公众对其自动驾驶系统安全性和可靠性的疑虑。尤其是在奥斯汀试运营期间发生多起危险事件后，美国国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）已就此展开质询。该机构此前也曾因涉及其他道路使用者的事故调查过Waymo和Zoox。
Tesla’s so-called “Full Self Driving” is a level 2 system on the Society of Automotive Engineers’s (SAE) six-point scale for autonomous vehicles, three levels below full autonomy. It requires the driver to take over duties as requested and to intervene in the event that it cannot function properly in a certain environment. Zoox and Waymo deploy level 4 systems that can operate without intervention.
需要指出的是，特斯拉所谓的“完全自动驾驶”（Full Self-Driving）在国际汽车工程师学会（SAE）六级自动驾驶标准中仅为L2级别，距离完全自动驾驶（L5）尚有三个等级之差。该系统仍要求驾驶员随时接管，并在系统无法应对特定环境时介入操作。相比之下，Zoox和Waymo部署的是L4系统，可在无需人工干预的情况下运行。
Musk told investors in April that the service would start to positively affect the electric-car maker’s bottom line around the second half of next year. “Once it does start to move the financial needle in a significant way, it will really go exponentially from there,” he said, predicting Tesla will have “a 99 per cent market share”.
马斯克今年4月告诉投资者，该服务预计将在明年下半年开始对特斯拉的财务表现产生积极影响。“一旦它真正开始显著拉动业绩，增长将呈指数级爆发，”他预测特斯拉将占据“99%的市场份额”。
But one former Tesla executive says that the company’s technology is still not safe enough to deploy on public roads without a safety driver or remote operator. They add that the technology, which relies solely on cameras, means that the vehicle is “driving through a dense fog” and this provides false assurances around safety. “You can’t outrun human complacency,” they add.
但一位前特斯拉高管表示，公司技术目前仍不足以在没有安全员或远程操作员的情况下安全上路。他指出，仅依赖摄像头的系统相当于“在浓雾中驾驶”，会给人带来虚假的安全感。“你无法跑赢人类的懈怠心理，”他补充道。
Wayve, a SoftBank-backed developer of autonomous driving systems based in London, is working closely with Uber to bring more Tesla-like robotaxis online in the coming years, including a UK trial starting in 2026. The start-up, which relies primarily on cameras but plans to use radar and lidar for its level-4 system, is working with automakers including Nissan to bring its technology to market.
总部位于伦敦、获软银投资的自动驾驶公司Wayve正与优步紧密合作，计划在未来几年内推出更多类似特斯拉的robotaxi服务，包括2026年启动的英国试点项目。这家初创公司虽主要依赖摄像头，但计划在其L4系统中加入雷达和激光雷达，并正与日产等车企合作推动技术落地。
Wayve is betting that a couple of thousand dollars’ worth of sensors integrated into regular, mass-produced vehicles will soon be capable of full autonomy, at a fraction of the cost of Waymo’s or Zoox’s custom cars.
Wayve押注：只需花费几千美元将传感器集成到普通量产车上，即可实现完全自动驾驶，成本仅为Waymo或Zoox定制车辆的一小部分。
Suranga Chandratillake, general partner at Balderton Capital, one of Wayve’s financial backers, argues that its “generalisable” self-driving technology reduces mapping and testing time needed before launching in a new city — a process he claims costs their rivals hundreds of millions of dollars.
其投资方Balderton Capital的普通合伙人苏兰加·钱德拉蒂拉克（Suranga Chandratillake）认为，Wayve的“通用型”自动驾驶技术能大幅缩短在新城市部署前所需的高精地图绘制和测试时间，他称竞争对手为此耗费数亿美元。
“No one in the world has demonstrated a scalable robotaxi solution yet,” says Alex Kendall, Wayve’s co-founder and chief executive. “But it’s coming.”
“目前全球还没有哪家公司真正展示出可扩展的robotaxi解决方案，”Wayve联合创始人兼CEO亚历克斯·肯德尔（Alex Kendall）表示，“但它即将到来。”
The upfront cost of robotaxis is just one of several overheads for their operators, alongside maintenance, charging and fleet management. “We’re selling rides, not vehicles,” says Aicha Evans, Zoox’s chief executive.
除了高昂的前期车辆成本，robotaxi运营商还需承担维护、充电和车队管理等多项运营开支。“我们卖的是行程，不是汽车，”Zoox首席执行官艾莎·埃文斯（Aicha Evans）强调。
Neel Mehta, former head of strategy at Zoox and a partner at venture capital firm G2, says that the focus of robotaxi operators is on driving down the marginal cost of operating a ride. “Naturally, what will win long term is the cost structure,” he adds.
前Zoox战略负责人、现风险投资公司G2合伙人尼尔·梅塔（Neel Mehta）指出，robotaxi运营商的核心目标是降低每次行程的边际运营成本。“长期来看，胜出者必然是成本结构最优的那个。”他说。
Robotaxi operators are relying on their vehicles operating longer shifts than human drivers. Zoox is aiming for 16 hours on a single charge, whereas Uber caps human drivers at 12 hours per shift.
这些公司寄望于自动驾驶车辆能比人类司机工作更长时间。Zoox的目标是单次充电运行16小时，而优步规定人类司机每班最多工作12小时。
The companies are seeking to find efficiencies by increasing the number of vehicles per remote operator — a person stationed in a control centre who can help guide a vehicle when it encounters difficult scenarios such as a roadblock, or respond to queries from passengers in their cars — as they grow more confident in the technology’s ability to navigate complex environments and situations.
随着对技术处理复杂路况能力的信心增强，企业正尝试提高每位远程操作员（坐镇控制中心，在车辆遇到路障等棘手情况时提供协助，或回应车内乘客咨询）所监管的车辆数量，以提升运营效率。
Uber’s Macdonald says that launching a robotaxi service at commercial scale in a city the size of London or New York would require “billions of dollars in capex”, plus operational costs.
优步的麦克唐纳表示，在伦敦或纽约这样规模的城市实现robotaxi的商业化运营，需要“数十亿美元的资本支出”外加持续运营成本。
But Walt Piecyk, an analyst at New York technology research firm LightShed Partners, estimates that a fleet of robotaxis could handle the same demand as Uber with as little as a third of the vehicles.
但纽约科技研究公司LightShed Partners的分析师沃尔特·皮西克（Walt Piecyk）估算，一支robotaxi车队仅需三分之一的车辆数量，就能满足与优步同等的出行需求。
If hardware costs can be brought down to $50,000, he pegs the total cost of a US-wide fleet at $25bn. “These aren’t insurmountable numbers,” he says. Autonomous driving executives hope that such a business plan could lure major pension funds and real estate investors such as Blackstone to buy whole fleets of autonomous vehicles.
他进一步推算，若硬件成本能降至5万美元，覆盖全美的车队总投入约为250亿美元。“这些数字并非不可逾越，”他说。自动驾驶行业高管希望，如此清晰的商业计划能吸引黑石集团等大型养老基金和房地产投资者批量采购自动驾驶车队。
For now, the likes of Waymo have focused on launching services in densely populated urban centres, such as San Francisco, where short journey times in the city lead to a higher turnover rate among riders and reduces the number of vehicles that need to operate to achieve profitability.
目前，Waymo等公司优先选择在旧金山等人口密集的城市推出服务，短途高频次的行程能提高车辆周转率，从而减少实现盈利所需的车辆总数。
“When you have a lower population density, there’s less demand and you have to spread out vehicles. This leads to worse economies of scale,” G2’s Mehta says.
“在人口密度较低的地区，需求更少，车辆必须分散部署，导致规模经济效应变差，”G2的梅塔解释道。
Expensive equipment and fleet management costs have translated into a more expensive experience for consumers who are paying roughly $11 per kilometre in San Francisco using Waymo, but around $8 with Uber for the same distance, according to Obi, an app that gathers pricing data across multiple ride-hailing services.
高昂的设备与管理成本也转嫁到了消费者身上。据聚合多个网约车平台价格数据的应用Obi显示，在旧金山乘坐Waymo每公里约需11美元，而优步同路段仅约8美元。
The companies say that the experience justifies the price. Wayve’s Kendall argues that his technology will offer a safer service than human drivers and at a lower cost.
各公司辩称，其服务体验物有所值。Wayve的肯德尔坚称，其技术不仅能提供比人类司机更安全的服务，成本也将更低。
However, some experts of driverless cars doubt that predominantly camera-based systems can pass the safety test.
然而，部分无人驾驶专家对以摄像头为主的系统能否通过安全考验表示怀疑。
“Regardless of whether it might be theoretically possible to have a camera system that is sufficient there’s simply no evidence that Tesla has that,” says Bryant Walker Smith, an associate professor at the University of South Carolina who helped write the SAE standard.
“无论理论上是否可能构建一套仅靠摄像头就足够安全的系统，目前都毫无证据表明特斯拉已经做到了这一点，”曾参与制定SAE标准的南卡罗来纳大学副教授布莱恩特·沃克·史密斯（Bryant Walker Smith）表示。
Since taking office this year, US President Donald Trump has loosened rules surrounding crash reporting to exempt operators from certain duties so long as their vehicles are being used for non-commercial purposes. These changes have ultimately helped smooth the path for robotaxi deployment.
自今年上任以来，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普已放宽碰撞事故报告规则，只要车辆用于非商业用途，运营商即可豁免部分义务。这些调整客观上为robotaxi的部署扫清了部分障碍。
Musk, who was Trump’s largest financial backer during last year’s US election, oversaw federal lay-offs that included the dismissal of staff within the “office of vehicle automation safety” at the NHTSA, the FT has previously reported. However, after the two men clashed over Trump’s tax and spending legislation, the regulatory road ahead for Tesla is less clear.
据《金融时报》此前报道，作为特朗普去年大选的最大金主，马斯克主导的联邦裁员行动波及NHTSA下属的“车辆自动化安全办公室”。不过，随着两人因税收与支出法案产生分歧，特斯拉未来的监管前景变得不明朗。
Even then, Waymo’s Gavel says that state-by-state restrictions on autonomous vehicles are the industry’s biggest brake on growth: “We hope for acceleration around that as more states feel the benefits.”
即便如此，Waymo的加维尔认为，各州对自动驾驶车辆的限制才是行业扩张的最大掣肘：“我们希望随着更多州感受到其益处，相关审批能加速推进。”
With the economics and regulation of robotaxis still unclear, the financial endurance of even the world’s most valuable tech companies is being tested.
在robotaxi的经济模型与监管框架仍不明确之际，即便是全球市值最高的科技公司，其财务耐力也正经受考验。
Waymo, which has raised more than $11bn including from outside investors such as Andreessen Horowitz and Fidelity, is experimenting with different business models to defray the costs. While it operates its Waymo One ride-hailing service alone in San Francisco and Los Angeles, it partners with Uber in Austin, Atlanta and Phoenix. As well as supplying passengers, Uber is helping pick up the tab in some of these cities for the cost of the vehicles and their management including cleaning, repair and depot operations.
Waymo迄今已融资超110亿美元（包括来自a16z、富达等外部投资者的资金），正尝试多种商业模式以分摊成本。它在旧金山和洛杉矶独立运营Waymo One服务，但在奥斯汀、亚特兰大和凤凰城则与优步合作。除提供乘客外，优步还在部分城市分担车辆及相关管理成本，包括清洁、维修和场站运营。
Zoox is planning to go direct to consumers, though it has held discussions with Uber and Lyft, the FT previously reported. Evans says that she expects its app will coexist with ride-hailing platforms for the foreseeable future. Musk, however, has dismissed the idea of teaming up with anyone else.
据《金融时报》早前报道，Zoox计划直接面向消费者，但也曾与优步和Lyft洽谈合作。埃文斯表示，其自有App预计将在可预见的未来与主流网约车平台共存。而马斯克则明确拒绝与其他任何公司结盟。
Mehta from G2 says that he anticipates most big cities will eventually settle with one or two major players, similar to Uber and Lyft competing in most US markets. “If there’s a third player, and you’re sub-scale, you won’t achieve the necessary unit economics,” he says. “It’s going to be a winner-takes-most market . . . It’s just not obvious who wins.”
G2的梅塔预测，大多数大城市最终将形成一两家主导玩家的格局，类似于当前美国市场优步与Lyft的竞争态势。“如果有第三家参与者且规模不足，就无法实现必要的单位经济效益。这将是一个‘赢家通吃多数’的市场……只是目前尚不清楚谁会胜出。”
If advocates of autonomy are to be believed, road safety may be the ultimate winner. But there will be a human cost too, with robotaxis presenting one of the most visible examples of how artificial intelligence is disrupting the workforce.
如果自动驾驶倡导者的愿景成真，道路安全或许将成为最大赢家。但人类也将付出代价，robotaxi正是人工智能颠覆劳动力市场的最显性例证之一。
Uber executives insist its service will still need more drivers, not fewer, in 10 years’ time, as autonomy accelerates the shift away from car ownership.
优步高管坚称，即便自动驾驶普及，十年后公司仍需要更多而非更少的司机，因为自动驾驶将加速人们放弃私家车的趋势。
Erik the Uber driver is philosophical. “Humans adapt, we always have,” he says. “This is just another opportunity.”
而身为优步司机的埃里克则显得豁达：“人类总会适应，我们一直如此。这不过是另一个机会罢了。”
10个月宝宝每天需要喝多少奶粉？
